Talking Turkey

The Thanksgiving holiday is approaching while the bird is topic #1 around the LakeCountyEye dinner table. No not that bird. 2009 Mount Prospect Mayoral hopeful and current 10th Congressional District candidate Patricia Bird, who is thick in the hustings.

According to the Daily Herald, Bird on three separate occasions officially dropped out of the 10th District race. Only to reverse each decision soon afterwards. A source in the Bird campaign has told your LakeCountyEye this is part of a long-range campaign strategy. Your LakeCountyEye has obtained some internal Bird campaign plans, which have been faithfully reproduced ...

Plan A	Plan B

These are currently being analyzed by the eraserheads down in the LakeCountyEye Cryptography Dept. If someone has any insight into the significance of these glyphs please contact ...

LakeCountyEye@gmail.com

A fabulous award awaits.

Apparently someone does know what these mean because Lake County Republican boss, Dan Venturi, wasted no time in throwing Pat Bird under the campaign bus:

"She should drop out," said Dan Venturi, leader of the Lake County Republican Party. "I think she wants to run and not be bothered (with campaigning), which is offensive."
Bird still in race for Kirk's Congressional seat, but will she stay?

Bird is generally perceived as a threat to frontrunner Elizabeth Coulson. Not that Bird has any chance of outpolling Coulson in the voting booth. But the nightmare scenario foresees Bird siphoning away enough votes from the same-gendered Coulson to give a surprise primary victory to one of her other 5, less estrogenized, challengers. Thus Illinois Republican Party generalissimos are taking measures to ensure a 10th District nomination is not (tea)bagged by a fringe candidate. The Daily Herald reported Coulson was the only 10th District candidate on an invitation list to meet with GOP Chairman Michael Steele today.

Coulson was one of about a dozen Republicans who met with Steele while he was in the area for private fundraisers. The meeting was organized by Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady, who invited GOP leaders from the state House and Senate. Coulson was invited by House Republican Leader Tom Cross of Oswego, who has endorsed her 10th District primary bid.
Coulson gets invite to RNC meeting

No one's looking for a repeat of the NY/23 SNAFU in IL/10!

Now, your LakeCountyEye has little desire to ruffle any feathers in the upcoming 10th Congressional turkey-shoot. But if you just happen to be advising Beth Coulson, you could do worse than send someone over in advance, next time, to make sure that Michael Steele isn't wearing a wire ...

Michael Steele	Plan A?

Word up!

Representative Sample

The results are in from the latest LakeCountyEye poll. The blue-ribbon scientific poll, taken here last week ...

This Way to the Congress

indicates that readers are either down-for-the-count with H1N1 or in a Halloween induced sugar-shock-coma. (Which, come to think of it, pretty much amounts to the same thing.) Zero percent of zero respondents correctly answered any of the poll questions. The take-home being, 10th District candidates might as well be in the witness protection program, because no one could identify any of them. Tsk!

Looking forward, your LakeCountyEye is to be found buried under an avalanche of requests from 8th and 10th District Congressional candidates who were not properly mentioned in previous posts. So with the filing period for the 2010 primary now over, among those scrutinizing the nominating petitions with their electron microscopes is your LakeCountyEye. Your LakeCountyEye has IDed an avalanche of candidates vying for their chance to represent the 8th and 10th districts in Washington.

These include Republicans and Democrats and Greens -- oh my! -- and are tabulated here for your reference. Well, just the Republican candidates. Your LakeCountyEye is still waiting to hear from those boring Democrats & Greens regarding their shout-out in the blog.

Anyways, your LakeCountyEye downloaded a cool new widget, and here's your chance to test your political acumen. All the 8th & 10th district GOP candidates are listed below. It's your job to match names and faces and parties and districts. There are 2,097,152 different combinations but only one is correct. Be the first one to correctly guess all 13 candidates! Winners will have their contact information forwarded to the fundraising committee of the candidate of their choice. Hurry before the your candidate is tossed off the ballot!

Contest not open to LakeCountyEye employees or family members.

This Way to the Congress

Your LakeCountyEye trained the microscope at the Eighth Congressional District this week ...

The Eighth is Enough

There is a crowded primary in the offing, at least on the Republican side. The reader, ie you, was challenged to identify the candidates. Could you match-up some mug shots with some names? The results are in and not surprisingly you did quite well when it came to IDing Maria Rodriguez. However you seemed to have nary the clue when it came to identifying the other candidates Joe Walsh, Greg Jacobs or John Dawson. The results were not much better than random chance. This may be an indication of Rodriguez's superior name recognition. Or it may be an indication that Rodriguez was the only female in the survey. In any event, the raw numbers have been forwarded to Price-Waterhouse for additional analysis.

Candidate A	Candidate B	Candidate C	Candidate D

You were correct if you sent in these answers:

• Candidate A / Maria Rodriguez (R)
• Candidate B / Joe Walsh (R)
• Candidate C / Greg Jacobs (R)
• Candidate D / John Dawson (R)

Winning entrants, watch your inbox this week. A LakeCountyEye Nigerian representative will be e-mailing you detailed instructions on how to claim your prize.

The Eighth isn't the only Congressional District in Lake County. On the east coast, the Tenth Congressional District also will have a crowded Republican primary. To those east coasters who have felt slighted by your LakeCountyEye, here is your chance to shine. Your challenge is to test your skills against those in the Eighth District. There are no less than four candidates who want to succeed Mark Kirk. They are, in no particular order ...

• Elizabeth Coulson (R)
• Bob Dold (R)
• Dick Green (R)
• Bill Cadigan (R)

Do you have what it takes? Match the 10th District candidate with the photo.
Candidate A	Candidate B	Candidate C	Candidate D
Do not delay, correct answers to be posted soon.

Lake County Eye Spots

The fallout from Mark Kirk's decision to run for US Senate has yet to settle. The 10th Congressional District is now a wide open seat. The latest developments ...

• Dan Seals will try again. Is the third time the charm?

• Susan Garrett will not run for the seat. Discretion is the better part of valor?

• Julie Hamos will run for the seat. You heard it here first.

• Jim Kirsch will run for the seat. You heard it here first.

• Internet Powerhouse™ Andy Martin is on the warpath. Oh snap!

Mark Kirk is the 2009 equivalent of that great political fraud (and also a Republican) [Senator]“Tail Gunner Joe” McCarthy.

• The Team America Blog now has a new mission. Will they get a new name?

The bloggers at Blue Lake Special have some funny suggestions:

Top Ten Rejected New Names for the TeamAmerica Blog
(10) Team America First through the Nineteenth
(9) TA: it now stands for Team Alaska
(8) Ellen's Illinois Tenth Congressional District Blog
(7) Falbe's Fables
(6) Now Even Less Bloody Likely I Get to Call Myself the X-Men
(5) Not Mark Kirk's Crudely Disguised Plugola Blog
(4) Team Just-Where-the-Hell-is-Decatur-Anyways-?
(3) Put a Kirk in It!
(2) FailBlog.org
(1) Blog Cabin Republicans

• Charlie Cook moved his rating for IL-10 from Lean R to Toss Up
Cook Political Report

• Immediately following the Monday announcement Mark Kirk was on right-wing radio, working the base. Nobody's fool is he.
WIND/560

10th Congressional Mosh Pit

10th District Congressman Mark Kirk neglected to close the door behind him on the way out. It seems that every confirmed, considering, recruited, rumored, and random-bystander candidate for the 10th Congressional District is no longer waiting in the wings. So many in fact, the sudden bump in candidate & campaign worker population may require the 10th be divided into 2 congressional districts ... Ten and Ten-Again.

The tally thus far, according to your LakeCountyEye's unofficial head count:

OUT
Mark Kirk (R)
Susan Garrett (D)

IN
Elliot Richardson (D)
Michael Bond (D)
Dan Seals (D)
Patricia Bird (R)

MAYBE
Julie Hamos (D)
Beth Coulson (R)
Ed Sullivan Jr (R)
Ann Maine (R)
Bill Strong (R)
Chris Kennedy (D)
Dick Green (R)
Chris Canning (R)
Terry Link (D)
Michelle Feldman (D)
Jim Kirsch (D)
Alan Keyes (R)

Of course this is by no means a comprehensive roster of rumored candidates. And these are just the known rumoreds. How many unknown rumoreds are lurking? Your LakeCountyEye estimates somewhere between the high 4 and low 5 digits. If you or your candidate were neglected from the list, send name & party affiliation, if known, to LakeCountyEye@gmail.com

With so many names, who are the winners and who are the losers? Your LakeCountyEye doesn't even know who half of these people are. And probably doesn't want to ruffle the feathers of the rest. So your LakeCountyEye can state without hesitation that our Democracy is the unequivocal winner.

With Enemies Like TheseWho Needs Friends?

Q: What do these 2 blogs share in common? Team America Ellen of the 10th A: This video. YouTube

The video was produced by the DSCC -- the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee -- and if this is typical of their work, then don't be surprised if the Democrats not only lose their Senate super-majority, but become the minority party in 2010.

Even before 10th District Congressman Mark Kirk had decided to pretend he has made up his mind to run for the US Senate, this attack video had been making the rounds of the InterWebs. Which illustrates the topsy-turvy state of the Illinois US Senate race. If I were Mark Kirk and I saw this video I'd say, "thank you DSCC" -- and if you have any more like that, keep 'em coming!

Howcome? There are already four declared Republican Senate candidates. These include Eric Wallace, Robert Zadek and Internet Powerhouse® Andy Martin. Also, with Party Chair Andy McKenna and Lisa Madigan out of the game now, your LakeCountyEye wouldn't be surprised to see more chapeaux tossed into the ring.

The point being, if you've been thinking Kirk gets to cakewalk through the Primary, think again.

Those who will bother to go to the polls in dead-of-winter-February and request a Republican ballot are not a representative sample of average voters. They will be social (if not fiscal) conservatives, who take their marching orders from FoxNews, and aren't likely to vote for someone who, like Kirk, voted for a Cap & Trade Energy Bill.

With long odds like these, how does a gun-hating, abortion-loving, gay-loving social liberal like Mark Kirk manage a Primary win? He will need to follow Richard Nixon's dictum:

To win a primary, run to the right.
To win an election, run to the center.

Between now and Feb, expect to see Kirk flogging his right-wing street-cred in an attempt to win over those same ditto-headed-voters. And if you didn't think Cap'n'Trade Kirk had any right-wing street-cred, just watch that DSCC video one more time.

Even the baby-seal-hugging Tenth District Dems piled on, releasing a presser full of facts and figures proving that for the record, Mark Kirk's is ...

... mostly a right-wing Republican voting record that contrasts with Kirk’s mostly moderate rhetoric.

And I'm sure Kirk will be telling his Primary voters down in Peoria & Decatur & Belleville the exact same thing. While flashing for everyone that photo of him man-clutching Dubya.

This DSCC video is exactly the sort of commercial Kirk will need to use to get him over the hump on February 2.

A Primary Primer

Congressman Mark Kirk (District 10) has infuriated his Republican base by voting last Friday in favor of the Cap & Trade Bill. Kirk may now be vulnerable to a primary challenge from the Right.

Kirk has not faced a challenger in a Republican Primary since 2000. But Melissa Bean has had to face off against other Democrats in two of the last three primaries. Even when Phil Crane held that seat, he regularly had Primary challengers -- and from the Right!

So the possibility that Kirk will have a primary challenger is a real one, and in fact may be overdue. Particularly if you look at the voting demographics of the 10th Congressional District, and the dynamics of primary elections. The 10th is unquestionably one of the more liberal districts in the state. The district's Cook PVI is set at a substantial left-of-center D+6. This is a district that gave Obama 61% to McCain's 38%. Even subtracting out an Obama bounce, the 10th District preferred Kerry over Bush 52% to 47% in 2004, and Gore over Bush 51% to 47% in 2000.

You would think that would give the liberal leaning Kirk an advantage in a primary, but this is actually a disadvantage for a candidate who politically is to the left of his Republican base.

Mark Kirk is the Blanche Dubois of Illinois Republicans, he depends on the kindness of moderates and conservative Democrats to get re-elected every election. However he cannot rely on this voting block in a primary election.

Compared to general elections, primaries typically garner low voter turnout. Since Illinois primaries are designed to be partisan elections, what this means is that non-partisan voters -- so-called moderates -- tend to sit out Illinois primaries. As for those conservative Democrats, they are still Democrats and will be asking for a Democratic ballot to vote for the Democratic candidates they support.

Another factor contributing to low turnout will be that the primary has been moved up from March to February 2. Any voter disinclined to brave the March weather to vote, will be double disinclined to vote in early February.

The voting block that is Kirk's margin of victory cannot be expected to be voting for him in the Primary. Expect anyone who does show up at the polling place to be a party loyalist, a political true-believer. In other words, that same Republican base that Kirk just angered with his "Cap & Tax" vote.

This is looking more and more like a pick-up opportunity for a Republican who can tap into that anger and challenge Kirk for being too liberal. Your LakeCountyEye's magic crystal ball indicates a quick & dirty win for someone willing to sail in under the radar from the Right.

Pwned by Bond

Well it happened -- State Senator Michael Bond pulled the trigger. According to the Daily Herald's political blog, Animal Farm, Bond has announced that he is running for the 10th Congressional District.

Your LakeCountyEye only wishes Bond would have announced a day sooner. And spared your LakeCountyEye the time and embarrassment of having written our tightly reasoned disquisition on why it was doubtful Bond will run for the 10th CD. Oh well, as President Obama says: we need to look forward, not backward.

Bond's press release is the sort of standard boilerplate one expects. More noteworthy is it marks a techtonic shift in Lake County politics. Bond's Senate seat is now up for grabs. Which means there are now some A-list players jockeying for position. Expect a crowded primary, on both sides. There are plenty of State Reps, County Board Members, Township Bosses with Senate-31 addresses who are unconcerned about re-election in 2010.

As to Congressional District 10, Bond's sudden & unexpected announcement is designed to scare off the competition. And he may scare away some Democrats. Your LakeCountyEye doesn't think he scares away Dan Seals. Seals has the name recognition & at-the-ready political infrastructure to take the primary.

Bond may also be hoping to scare Mark Kirk into running for US Senate or Governor. Your LakeCountyEye doesn't see that happening either. Kirk's state-wide polling & down-state support is tepid at best -- he is all but certain to run for re-election in the 10th CD.

Which is actually good news for Bond. Because with Kirk in, Seals is almost assuredly out. Which all but guarantees we will see Bond's name printed on the November, 2010 election ballot.

Your LakeCountyEye's crystal ball may have been the LakeCountyEye eightball as of late. But regarding Kirk v Bond in 2010, you can take that to the -- um -- bank.

To Believe Or Not To Believe?

On Wall Street the rule of thumb is Buy on Rumor, Sell on News. OK this is the blogosphere, not Wall Street, so your LakeCountyEye is prepared to pass along a rumor burning up the 10th Congressional District. In what is looking to be the hot Lake County election contest in 2010, RollCall reported last week that Michael Bond, State Senate District 31, will seek the Democratic nomination to the 10th Congressional District.

As of this posting, we've heard nothing official from Bond's organization. Now, RollCall is a venerable outfit, and a rumor they choose to report is not to be taken lightly. But your LakeCountyEye has to regard it with, at minimum, a grain of salt -- frankly, nothing about the story quite makes it past the LakeCountyEye salt detector.

For example, how does Bond expect to score any better than Jay Footlik did against the de-facto incumbent on the Democratic side, Dan Seals? And if Seals decides to take a bye, what is Bond's reasonable expectation against a formidable Mark Kirk? Kirk has never lost an election and presumably is not planning to lose any future match-up.

Also, Bond is up for re-election in 2010. Would he abandon a safe Senate seat for a risky chance at representing the 10th Congressional District? Wouldn't Bond seem better advised to get himself re-elected to the IL Senate in 2010, and then take his shot at the 10th CD in 2012 -- when he would be risking, electorally, next to nothing?

Also noteworthy are the details of the RollCall rumor:

Bond has tapped John Lapp to do his media campaign, Bennett, Petts & Normington to his polling and Ed Peavy to do direct mail for the race, according to one source familiar with the arrangement. The source also said a former aide to Rep. Melissa Bean (D), Brian Herman, will manage his campaign.

If any of this holds then Bond is buying himself some big-league firepower. John Lapp is the hired gun Rahm Emanuel brought in to help flip Congress in 2006. Bennett, Petts & Normington is the DCCC's in-house pollster. Ed Peavy is Melissa Bean's direct mailer. Brian Herman (who we know to be a Lake County native) co-managed Bean's 2004 upset.

Your LakeCountyEye doesn't know the circumstances behind who leaked what to RollCall. Someone may be peeing down someone's back and calling it rain. Stay tuned!

10th Congressional District News Flash

Well.

While your LakeCountyEye has been all about predicting that Mark Kirk will run for re-election in the 10th Congressional District, it appears the big 10th CD news was breaking on the Democratic side of the equation. It's not a total surprise but a Democrat has thrown his hat in the ring for the 10th Congresional District.

That Democrat would be Elliot Richardson. Your LakeCountyEye confesses we don't know too much about Mr Richardson outside of what we found on his website. We can say this is not the same Elliot Richardson who defied Richard Nixon during Watergate. In fact we can state this without hesitation and categorically, since this Elliot Richardson died in 1999. We don't know if the two Richardsons are related.

Richardson's entry into the 10th CD contest certainly shakes things up. Were Democrat Dan Seals to take another shot at capturing the 10th, Richardson, by any estimation, would be facing an all but insurmountable Primary opponent. However if your LakeCountyEye's crystal ball is correct, then Kirk is likely to run for re-election in the 10th and Seals is likely a no-show. Which means Richardson has adroitly positioned himself as the Democratic front-runner for the 10th Congressional District.

OK, will Richardson be able to beat Kirk in November 2010? Hard to say. Richardson no doubt has a steep, uphill climb ahead of him. Much will depend on whether or not Richardson raises the multi-millions of dollars necessary to run a credible Congressional election campaign. If not then Richardson would likely be front-man for a token vanity campaign in the style of Hank Perritt and Lee Goodman.