Beyond Pwn3d by Bond

State Senator Michael Bond no doubt has been reading your LakeCountyEye's predictions here and here. What else explains Bond's announcement today to seek re-election to the 31st Senate District? Your LakeCountyEye's magic crystal ball naturally predicted this outcome months ago.

Sharp-eyed readers might remember that the magic crystal ball also predicted -- here and here and here -- that Mark Kirk will seek re-election in the 10th Congressional District. Admittedly Kirk is presently downstate somewhere (Lincoln County?) and pressing the flesh in a bid for the US Senate. This is no cause for alarm, sharp-eyed readers, Congressman Kirk will be back. Sooner or later. And seeking re-election in the 10th. The magic crystal ball is never disrespected.

The Skinny on Schmidt

The latest skinny, reported by the Daily Herald the NewsSun and the Pioneer Press, is that Lake County Chair Suzi Schmidt is running for Michael Bond's open Senate District 31 seat. According to the NewsSun Schmidt said

I've been mulling this over for a long time, probably for the last four months. I always have problems with the state (government), and I thought I'd just get my name out there.

Your LakeCountyEye hazards to guess that Schmidt would have been still mulling four months hence, had not Bond announced his plans to run for the 10th Congressional District.

Not so, reports the Pioneer Press:

Schmidt said Bond's decision to run for Congress was not a factor in her decision to seek the state senate seat. "Whether he was running or not I was going to run. That didn't have any influence on my decision at all," she said.

Readers are encouraged to make up their own joke regarding the LakeCountyEye's schmidt detector here.

Admittedly your LakeCountyEye is at a disadvantage when it comes to reporting any skinny on Suzi Schmidt, at least when it comes to handicapping her campaign prospects. Schmidt represents County Board District 3, and is not up for re-election until 2012. Which means Schmidt takes a minimal electoral risk running for anything in 2010. County Board 3 is fully contained in and at the western portion of Senate 31. It is a compact district of about 20,000 registered voters -- about 1/7 of Senate 31's total.

The Herald also reports that Schmidt has the backing of Lake County GOP Chair and Lake Villa Township Supervisor, Dan Venturi. This is surprising because your LakeCountyEye expected Venturi to run for Bond's seat. The rumor rumbling through northwest Lake County had been that JoAnn Osmond was planning to retire from her Representative District 61 seat before her term expired. Venturi would be appointed to sit out the remainder of her term. And Venturi would run for Senate 31 in 2010 -- using the Rep seat as way to ensure the pole position against his primary competitors.

But according to the Herald,

Venturi doubts Schmidt will have any serious opposition in the 2010 GOP primary.

OK but let's not forget Senate 31 will be an open seat. And only 1000 signatures are needed to be on the GOP ballot. So whether or not deals have been struck to see that Schmidt rolls to an easy primary win, your LakeCountyEye predicts there will be a crowded field of primary candidates for Senate 31.

On both sides.

Pwned by Bond

Well it happened -- State Senator Michael Bond pulled the trigger. According to the Daily Herald's political blog, Animal Farm, Bond has announced that he is running for the 10th Congressional District.

Your LakeCountyEye only wishes Bond would have announced a day sooner. And spared your LakeCountyEye the time and embarrassment of having written our tightly reasoned disquisition on why it was doubtful Bond will run for the 10th CD. Oh well, as President Obama says: we need to look forward, not backward.

Bond's press release is the sort of standard boilerplate one expects. More noteworthy is it marks a techtonic shift in Lake County politics. Bond's Senate seat is now up for grabs. Which means there are now some A-list players jockeying for position. Expect a crowded primary, on both sides. There are plenty of State Reps, County Board Members, Township Bosses with Senate-31 addresses who are unconcerned about re-election in 2010.

As to Congressional District 10, Bond's sudden & unexpected announcement is designed to scare off the competition. And he may scare away some Democrats. Your LakeCountyEye doesn't think he scares away Dan Seals. Seals has the name recognition & at-the-ready political infrastructure to take the primary.

Bond may also be hoping to scare Mark Kirk into running for US Senate or Governor. Your LakeCountyEye doesn't see that happening either. Kirk's state-wide polling & down-state support is tepid at best -- he is all but certain to run for re-election in the 10th CD.

Which is actually good news for Bond. Because with Kirk in, Seals is almost assuredly out. Which all but guarantees we will see Bond's name printed on the November, 2010 election ballot.

Your LakeCountyEye's crystal ball may have been the LakeCountyEye eightball as of late. But regarding Kirk v Bond in 2010, you can take that to the -- um -- bank.

To Believe Or Not To Believe?

On Wall Street the rule of thumb is Buy on Rumor, Sell on News. OK this is the blogosphere, not Wall Street, so your LakeCountyEye is prepared to pass along a rumor burning up the 10th Congressional District. In what is looking to be the hot Lake County election contest in 2010, RollCall reported last week that Michael Bond, State Senate District 31, will seek the Democratic nomination to the 10th Congressional District.

As of this posting, we've heard nothing official from Bond's organization. Now, RollCall is a venerable outfit, and a rumor they choose to report is not to be taken lightly. But your LakeCountyEye has to regard it with, at minimum, a grain of salt -- frankly, nothing about the story quite makes it past the LakeCountyEye salt detector.

For example, how does Bond expect to score any better than Jay Footlik did against the de-facto incumbent on the Democratic side, Dan Seals? And if Seals decides to take a bye, what is Bond's reasonable expectation against a formidable Mark Kirk? Kirk has never lost an election and presumably is not planning to lose any future match-up.

Also, Bond is up for re-election in 2010. Would he abandon a safe Senate seat for a risky chance at representing the 10th Congressional District? Wouldn't Bond seem better advised to get himself re-elected to the IL Senate in 2010, and then take his shot at the 10th CD in 2012 -- when he would be risking, electorally, next to nothing?

Also noteworthy are the details of the RollCall rumor:

Bond has tapped John Lapp to do his media campaign, Bennett, Petts & Normington to his polling and Ed Peavy to do direct mail for the race, according to one source familiar with the arrangement. The source also said a former aide to Rep. Melissa Bean (D), Brian Herman, will manage his campaign.

If any of this holds then Bond is buying himself some big-league firepower. John Lapp is the hired gun Rahm Emanuel brought in to help flip Congress in 2006. Bennett, Petts & Normington is the DCCC's in-house pollster. Ed Peavy is Melissa Bean's direct mailer. Brian Herman (who we know to be a Lake County native) co-managed Bean's 2004 upset.

Your LakeCountyEye doesn't know the circumstances behind who leaked what to RollCall. Someone may be peeing down someone's back and calling it rain. Stay tuned!