Monday, April 27, 2009

To Believe Or Not To Believe?

On Wall Street the rule of thumb is Buy on Rumor, Sell on News. OK this is the blogosphere, not Wall Street, so your LakeCountyEye is prepared to pass along a rumor burning up the 10th Congressional District. In what is looking to be the hot Lake County election contest in 2010, RollCall reported last week that Michael Bond, State Senate District 31, will seek the Democratic nomination to the 10th Congressional District.

As of this posting, we've heard nothing official from Bond's organization. Now, RollCall is a venerable outfit, and a rumor they choose to report is not to be taken lightly. But your LakeCountyEye has to regard it with, at minimum, a grain of salt -- frankly, nothing about the story quite makes it past the LakeCountyEye salt detector.

For example, how does Bond expect to score any better than Jay Footlik did against the de-facto incumbent on the Democratic side, Dan Seals? And if Seals decides to take a bye, what is Bond's reasonable expectation against a formidable Mark Kirk? Kirk has never lost an election and presumably is not planning to lose any future match-up.

Also, Bond is up for re-election in 2010. Would he abandon a safe Senate seat for a risky chance at representing the 10th Congressional District? Wouldn't Bond seem better advised to get himself re-elected to the IL Senate in 2010, and then take his shot at the 10th CD in 2012 -- when he would be risking, electorally, next to nothing?

Also noteworthy are the details of the RollCall rumor:
Bond has tapped John Lapp to do his media campaign, Bennett, Petts & Normington to his polling and Ed Peavy to do direct mail for the race, according to one source familiar with the arrangement. The source also said a former aide to Rep. Melissa Bean (D), Brian Herman, will manage his campaign.
If any of this holds then Bond is buying himself some big-league firepower. John Lapp is the hired gun Rahm Emanuel brought in to help flip Congress in 2006. Bennett, Petts & Normington is the DCCC's in-house pollster. Ed Peavy is Melissa Bean's direct mailer. Brian Herman (who we know to be a Lake County native) co-managed Bean's 2004 upset.
Your LakeCountyEye doesn't know the circumstances behind who leaked what to RollCall. Someone may be peeing down someone's back and calling it rain. Stay tuned!


Team America said...

BB- the Daily Herald ran a story a few days ago that seemingly confirms the Roll Call story as to Bond.

Why so reluctant to believe that Bond would make this move? You are obviously not familiar with the guy's ego.

Anonymous said...

TA, the real news is the team Bond has allegedly assembled. If that is true, I'm a believer. And isn't ego sort of a requirement in a congress critter?

Anonymous said...

Does Sen. Bond live in the 10th District?

barney baxter said...

Hi TA. I saw the Herald story. I wonder if the Herald broke any news in the piece -- other than making a call to Bond & Garrett?

I'm skeptical because the first time I heard the rumor, I thought it was a hoax. The RollCall story namedrops some major league DC firepower. Um, who's paying for these guys? Bond has a funder scheduled this weekend -- but for his Senate reelection. Something doesn't add up.

You may be more familiar with Bond's ego than I am, I'm guessing you could know something about all this I don't?

Anonymous said...

I'm concerned here. You missed the boat on the Bond plans, and frankly, if you live in Lake County, you just can't equate the way Bond's campaigns run to either Seals or whomever. But don't ask me; there are 4 new county board members that can tell you in detail. Bond's senate campaign was in a district far more GOP dominated and he won. He did so by very hard work. The 10th is 55% registered Dems. All they need is a better candidate and Bond is very, very good. Seals tried to ride the 'blue wave' in 08 and just didn't develop a good ground plan.

I think perhaps our blogger here has some issues with Bond.

Anonymous said...

Who doesn't have issues with Bond?

He does not represent his district well and only one becuase of the IND's and REP's that voted for him on the word of Geo. Everyone knows that.

He has done very little for his constituents and they know and he knows it!

barney baxter said...

Hi Anonymous 1:35
Yuppers, Bond's announcement today caught us flatfooted. I personally have no doubts that Bond will put together a formidable campaign. However I simply don't see Bond beating Seals in a primary. Seals has two nearly insurmountable things going for him: name recognition and all the advantages that come with being the incumbent. Having said that, I also think Bond is the Democratic Party's best chance to take over the 10th Congressional District. It's difficult to see Seals beating Kirk. Not nearly a difficult envisioning Bond beating Kirk.

Anonymous said...

The incumbent what? Tell me, oh Mr. Ear-to-the-ground, what does Dan Seals do for a living? Any evidence of a craft or product or clients of late?

Prognosticate this: Seals will be silent through July as he watches his list of contributors evaporate. All that would be left by then is a volunteer organization that was under-utilized the last time around.

Senator Garrett will also not announce anything till the summer because EMILY's list is very low on cash. If she instead throws her muscle behind helping Bond AND holding the 31st, even win the 61st and 62nd, her stock-and-trade sky-rockets and she hasn't even broken a sweat. She gets the kudos and the good committees and hasn't even touched her campaign fund.

Note also the umpf of the Bond 10th Team. The implication there is that these heavy-hitters believe Bond is the best candidate and that the DCCC is already on board. Pollsters and media guys want two things: winners and their paychecks. If they aren't being coy, it follows that they believe they'll get both. As to the name recognition..........?

He's Bond .........., Michael Bond.

barney baxter said...

Hi Anonymous 11:31
I should have said Seals is the incumbent Democratic candidate. I don't know what Seals does for a living and I don't think it matters. Running for Congress is essentially your full-time job if a candidate has any expectation to win. I think Seals's decision tree at this stage of the game is pretty simple -- if Kirk runs for Senate then Seals runs again for the 10th. Otherwise Seals says home. He's missed his opportunity to beat Kirk -- but he has a reasonably high expectation to win any Democratic primary. The primary is a month sooner now which favors a de-facto incumbent; I don't underestimate the power of name-recognition, and Seals has many politically active friends in the 10th. If Seals does lose a primary, that means a staggering amount of money was spent and a staggering amount of mud got thrown. In this worst-case-scenario, it doesn't matter who the winner is, because every Democratic candidate loses. I doubt that Garrett will run. She won't beat Bond one-on-one. Garrett's only chance is being the spoiler in a crowded primary. And I don't see a crowded primary. Because Kirk is likely to opt to keep his 10th CD seat. Which is Bond's best-case-scenario. He gets an easy primary victory and a chance to build some momentum into Nov 2010. I 100% agree that Bond is the best candidate the Democrats have (so far) with any chance of taking on Kirk. How much support Bond actually winds up getting from Garrett, Link, 10th-Dems, EDDI, I'm sure is yet to be hashed out.