On Wall Street the rule of thumb is Buy on Rumor, Sell on News. OK this is the blogosphere, not Wall Street, so your LakeCountyEye is prepared to pass along a rumor burning up the 10th Congressional District. In what is looking to be the hot Lake County election contest in 2010, RollCall reported last week that Michael Bond, State Senate District 31, will seek the Democratic nomination to the 10th Congressional District.As of this posting, we've heard nothing official from Bond's organization. Now, RollCall is a venerable outfit, and a rumor they choose to report is not to be taken lightly. But your LakeCountyEye has to regard it with, at minimum, a grain of salt -- frankly, nothing about the story quite makes it past the LakeCountyEye salt detector.
For example, how does Bond expect to score any better than Jay Footlik did against the de-facto incumbent on the Democratic side, Dan Seals? And if Seals decides to take a bye, what is Bond's reasonable expectation against a formidable Mark Kirk? Kirk has never lost an election and presumably is not planning to lose any future match-up.
Also, Bond is up for re-election in 2010. Would he abandon a safe Senate seat for a risky chance at representing the 10th Congressional District? Wouldn't Bond seem better advised to get himself re-elected to the IL Senate in 2010, and then take his shot at the 10th CD in 2012 -- when he would be risking, electorally, next to nothing?
Also noteworthy are the details of the RollCall rumor:
Bond has tapped John Lapp to do his media campaign, Bennett, Petts & Normington to his polling and Ed Peavy to do direct mail for the race, according to one source familiar with the arrangement. The source also said a former aide to Rep. Melissa Bean (D), Brian Herman, will manage his campaign.
If any of this holds then Bond is buying himself some big-league firepower. John Lapp is the hired gun Rahm Emanuel brought in to help flip Congress in 2006. Bennett, Petts & Normington is the DCCC's in-house pollster. Ed Peavy is Melissa Bean's direct mailer. Brian Herman (who we know to be a Lake County native) co-managed Bean's 2004 upset.
Your LakeCountyEye doesn't know the circumstances behind who leaked what to RollCall. Someone may be peeing down someone's back and calling it rain. Stay tuned!
