Sucker Bet

The anarcho-libertarians at the McHenryCountyBlog are fuming over right-leaning Daily Herald's endorsement of Melissa Bean. The blog, an industry leader in cognitive dissonance, is claiming an uncredited role in a recent Herald story ...

The resurrection of Joe Walsh's campaign

which is all about the resurrection of Eight Congressional District candidate Joe Walsh's dead-as-a-dead-parrot campaign from the dead.

According to the McHenryCountyBlog, Herald reporter Kimberly Pohl was

tasked to try to explain why Walsh is still in the race. It's as if she had read my article explaining the New York Times blogger Nate Silver having lowered Bean's odds of winning from 97.8% to 80.6%. This comes over two weeks after a very large (1,381–the largest I have ever seen in a congressional race–We Ask America telephone poll showed a 41% to 41% tie
Daily Herald Tries to Cover Rear End on Joe Walsh

... a virtual dead-heat between Walsh and Bean. The We Ask America poll in question surprised your LakeCountyEye, who is marking the point spread 55/45 in Bean's favor.

Readers of this blog will recall that We Ask America at a minimum pretends to be a real polling organization ...

The Numbers Racket

They have a website. And they publish poll results. Some published numbers from their recent Tenth Congressional District poll ...

We’re baaack

Eagle-eyed operatives may wonder how one goes about pulling off a neat trick like polling 132.38% of Democrats in the 10th C/D. No doubt something to do with how compound interest is amortized over the lifetime of the loan poll. Alas, your LakeCountyEye is not a mathematician (nor a payday loan provider). However Nate Silver (aforementioned by the McHenryCountyBlog) is ...

many of the polls are either partisan-affiliated, or were "robopolls" that used automated scripts rather than live interviewers, or both. (The former are highlighted in red in the table; the latter are given the designation "I.V.R.," for interactive voice response). Polls with an explicit partisan affiliation are on average about 6 points friendlier to their candidate than those conducted by independent groups. Robopolls have not shown any persistent bias in the past — but this year, they have been 2 to 4 points more favorable to Republicans than traditional surveys, and the differences have tended to be larger in polls of House races as opposed to conducted in Senate or gubernatorial campaigns. So this is a group of polls that you'd expect to be pretty Republican-friendly.
Canaries in the Coal Mine? Or Cuckoo Polls?

The We Ask America poll showing Bean and Walsh in a dead-heat, was both a robopoll and partisan commissioned. Adjusting Silver's numbers into the equation, your LakeCountyEye marks the point spread at about ... 55/45 in Bean's favor. Note to operatives: when in McHenry County do not pass up an opportunity to cover that bet against Melissa Bean. Kerching!

The Numbers Racket

Ladies, gentlemen and operatives, we suddenly have a white-knuckle dragger of a horserace in the 8th Congressional District. Only a week ago the Bean v Walsh v Scheurer mélee à trois was essentially over. Roll up those yardsigns, it will be Melissa Bean in a cakewalk. As reported on this blog,

Crazy Eighth

Nate Silver was spotting Joe Walsh an infinitesimal 2.2% chance at emerging victorious in the 8th CD.

Well a new poll, just released by We Ask America, has the race in the eighth now closer than mac'n'cheese.

Illinois: 8th Cong. Dist. Poll Report

How close? This close:

Your eyes do not deceive you, the contest between Melissa Bean and Joe Walsh is tighter than the Dave Matthews Band on New Year's Eve.

Your LakeCountyEye can't help but wonder what deus ex machina could possibly explain this remarkable and sudden turnaround. What are the chances that the voters in the Eighth are so evenly split that just one vote will make the difference between the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat?

Your LakeCountyEye knows how easy it is to manipulate poll results, particularly when the poll is based on responses to robo-call recordings. Especially when the equipment is capable of dropping its connections until it gets the results it wants. This is the gist of a Bill Foster complaint relayed to the Daily Herald, regarding a March 2010 robo-poll in the 14th Congressional District:

"We Ask America admits to technical errors in their polling technology, which completely compromises the accuracy of their polling," said Matt Snodgrass, political director of Foster's campaign. "Why should we trust the data from an organization that neither identifies themselves nor uses functional polling technology?"
Firm behind Foster health care phone poll won't apologize

Hawk-eyed operatives will observe that this pollster -- We Ask America -- is the same outfit responsible for the new Eighth CD poll.

Your LakeCountyEye already mentioned it is easy to game poll results. Pollsters, don't wait another minute -- your LakeCountyEye has a team of trained operatives working round-the-clock waiting to take your call!

Crazy Eighth

This blog may well be a slice of rye with a swipe of mayo, because your LakeCountyEye is being spammed. The YouTube link air-dropped into recent comment sections of this blog leads to a video attacking Eighth Congressional Candidate, Joe Walsh. The best way to make mincemeat of spam is to shine some light on it, so the video is reproduced here:

YouTube

A commendable approximation of a viral video, to be sure, although it has your LakeCountyEye is wondering why bother? Nate Silver gives Walsh a 0.0000000002% chance of winning, a figure that puts Walsh within the statistical margin of error only if one invokes the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle.

FiveThirtyEight

A much funnier video attacks Eighth District Congresswoman, Melissa Bean:

YouTube

It's looking like the Tea Party has jacked up its efforts to stalk Bean. Note to operatives: when sending one of your guys out w/camera to capture that macaca moment, make sure your guy is not some maroon playing constitution cop. When in public, the constitution guarantees your right to be perceived as a clown. Best advice: take constitutional grievances to where they belong -- the ACLU.

Note to operatives, on the flip side: If your top dog is being hounded by a maroon w/camera, run some interference. Have a guy firmly block & politely inform the camera that the senator/governor/mayor/president is late for a session and will be happy to follow-up at a later date. Your LakeCountyEye happens to know the Round Lake Library District keeps some mean bone-crushers on staff to protect their inventory from over-achieving middle-schoolers. Give them a call; they are willing to freelance.

No Contest

With the November election coming up next November, your LakeCountyEye is a firm believer that it is never too early to handicap the candidates. It's probably a tad premature to publish any point spreads this early in the game -- even for those who have distilled the craft down to a science. Of course, the secret to good handicapping is all in the numbers -- knowing the strengths and weaknesses of the field. To this end, your LakeCountyEye is keeping book on every relevant Lake County election contest. In the Eighth Congressional District the contest has firmed up as one between incumbent Melissa Bean and challenger Joe Walsh:

Candidate	Melissa Bean	Joe Walsh
Campaign Portrait w/Am. Flag
Party	Democratic	Tea Party Republican
Home	Barrington 10th Congressional District	Winnetka 10th Congressional District
Campaign Logo	Beanbag	Teabag
Takes Marching Orders from ...	Nancy Pelosi	Glenn Beck
Bankers	In the Pocket of	In the Foreclosure of Daily Herald
Comical Character with Similar Name	Mr Bean	Joe Walsh
Suits	T.J. Maxx	$20,000 Suit Filed by ex-Campaign Manager for Unpaid Wages Daily Herald
Miscellaneous	$50,000 Federal Grant for School Bus Safety in Gurnee	Thrown Under the Campaign Bus by NRCC Daily Herald

Whoa. Bean v Walsh won't even be close -- this one is ready to be called. Except the authorities have prevailed upon your LakeCountyEye to hold off on predictions until after the election. Apparently your LakeCountyEye's Feb 2 pre-election prognostications were good enough that very few primary voters actually bothered to show up at the polls.

Melissa Bean Discussed on Bill Moyers' Journal

I'm Chevy Chase

Who remembers H1N1? Anyone who does gets to go to the front of the vaccination line. Your LakeCountyEye remembers quite well the old swine flu, being unable to forget this headline from October ...

Bean cancels talk on flu after daughter gets it

The complete dope is pretty much encapsulated in the Trib's lede ...

Exposed to the swine flu virus after her teenage daughter was stricken, Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.) canceled a visit Monday to a Hoffman Estates junior high school where she planned to discuss how to avoid the bug.

If there was any doubt that Melissa Bean had gone viral, doubt it no longer.

Here is the 2006 Bean campaign ad that sealed the deal between her and her voters:

I'm Melissa Bean

An effective ad can be expected to spread like, well, a virus, and this one spread all the way to Arizona. There the Congressional candidate is Scottsdale Republican, Eric Wnuck:

I'm Eric Wnuck

The Arizona Republic covered the video, making the story a case of plagiarism vs campaign free speech.

GOP House hopeful accused of copying ad

Plagiarism? Free speech? Either way, Bean should be flattered.

Your LakeCountyEye is nothing if not a student of the latest trends. Expect to see, throughout the upcoming campaign season, any or all of the following ads on the teevee:

• I'm Dirk Beveridge
• I'm John Dawson
• I'm Jonathan Farnick
• I'm Chris Geissler
• I'm Greg Jacobs
• I'm Maria Rodriguez
• I'm Bill Scheurer
• I'm Joe Walsh

Take it from Eric Wnuck. They've already started plagiarizing him:

I'm Eric Wnuck Parody

Everything else being equal, your LakeCountyEye is Spartacus.

Q the Eye/12.04.09

Dear LakeCountyEye,

How does someone get on the ballot in the Eighth Congressional District, where we need a real Democrat? I personally went out and collected my minimum 890 petition signatures. Or was it 876? OK, let's say eight and change. But now a rubberstamp panel of election judges ruled I can't be on the ballot because of some legal technicality. Isn't that unconstitutional? Don't the voters deserve a choice?

Far-Flung Off the Ballot

Dear Fahrvergnügen,

Your LakeCountyEye shares in your outrage towards that ruling. Everyone should be entitled to their 15 minutes of fame whether they deserve any or not.

About your lament that the Eighth District voters deserve a choice: the latest numbers indicate there are 7 or 8 or 9 -- let's say an even dozen -- Republicans hoping to challenge Melissa Bean from the right. (No mean feat.) Also Bill & Randi Scheurer have been running from the left as a tag-team against Bean. It's Bill's turn at the plate, who is running as a Green this time. Now, in a typical Congressional race expect to see (1) an incumbent running against (2) no one else. Your LakeCountyEye thinks the voters in the Eighth already have more choices than they can deal with.

Of course, petition challenges seem to be the norm for the Eighth District. In 2007 there were two Democrats running against Bean -- Randi Scheurer and some other forgotten chumbolone candidate. The chumbolone filed only about 95% of the minimum required petition signatures -- sort of like he was asking to be tossed off the ballot. Still, one didn't need to be a Karl Rove to have advised Scheurer to just ignore the petition shortfall. Scheurer had no reasonable chance of beating Bean. In fact, no one expected Bean to even campaign or show up at the sponsored debates. But with at least some breathing chumbolone to debate against, Scheurer would have gotten her opportunity to take the podium, air her issues, talk to the press, etc.

Long story short, however, Scheurer not only had the opponent thrown off the ballot, she filed the challenge personally.

SCHEURER V FARNICK
Illinois State Board of Elections

(Ordinarily campaigns get some willing accomplice to do this sort of dirty work.)

Zion man files objection to Bean challenger
NewsSun

With no one to debate with, Scheurer predictably was not invited to be a debate participant. And on top of that she had a potential Democratic ally pee-ohed at her. Your LakeCountyEye is still scratching the LakeCountyEye noggin over that play.

Anyways, fast forward to 2009 and the chumbolone is back with 100% of the required signatures. (Give or take a handful.) Randi Scheurer is sitting this election out. And it's up to Bean this time to dispatch a willing accomplice to get her competitor thrown off the ballot.

And quicker than you can say deja vu, it's like he was asking to be tossed off the ballot all over again: "The only thing I can think of (is) I lost a sheet."

Bean challenger removed from ballot
Pioneer Press

... while playing to the press like he was sucker punched. All over again: "I always felt whoever wanted to run should be able to run."

So how does someone get on the ballot in the Eighth District? Just run as a Green next time, Grasshopper. As a Green, you'll only need to get five signatures to qualify, ten max. (Do fifteen to be safe.) And who knows, next time it may be you filing the papers in 2011 to get Randi Scheurer knocked off the ballot.

If you are an elected official, or a previously elected official, or just a private citizen under indictment, send your political questions to Q the Eye c/o ... LakeCountyEye@gMail.com

Eye Spy Melissa Bean's Health Care Townhall

Red Tail has been a bit busy this week getting ready for Labor Day festivities, but we wanted to report on the Melissa Bean's Chamber of Commerce Townhall in Kildeer, which we attended.

It was preceded by a lot of media attention. Michelle Malkin's blog noted the event. (Malkin predictably focused on the Lake Zurich Chamber's standard $25 door fee.) About 50 pro and anti health care reform activists were on hand. If you were delayed in the resulting traffic jam -- US 12 & Quentin Rd -- thank Michelle Malkin. Her e-mail address is writemalkin@gmail.com.

The Daily Herald was on hand, providing excellent coverage. And a bonus video of the event.

The event began at 7:30am. Unsurprisingly absent at that early hour were the bussed in agitators seen at other recent local health care forums. LakeCountyEye can report the turnout was comparatively meager.

While the crowd outside may have been lacking in numbers they made up for it with enthusiasm and commitment. Here is the audio of an exchange between two activists at the protest, on opposite sides of the debate, one of whom has lost his health insurance coverage due to a pre-existing condition:

Inside, Lake Zurich Chamber members politely listened to Congresswoman Bean speak on many issues before Congress, including ten minutes on health care reform. While she refused to call health insurance a "right," she seemed surprisingly open to what Congress might come up with (out of the five or so bills now circulating) in terms of making it available to all -- whether you lose your job or not.

In fact, it is hard for us to understand here at Lake County Eye how people can yell about keeping government out of health insurance when most of them are only a "you're fired" away from not being covered at all. In fact, who among us knows when we might come down with a serious disease that our insurance company will then, uncerimoniously, decide was a pre-existing condition. Then, goodbye, house. Goodbye, credit rating. Hello, bankruptcy.

Congresswoman Bean promises to read in full any bill on health insurance accessibility that comes before her, which is what she has done with most bills, she says. Personally, Lake County Eye wishes she would have had a town hall, too, simply for the potential high comedy factor. This thing in Lake Zurich was way too polite for the Eye's taste in slap-stick.

Bean Baggers

Tea Baggers staged a health care protest this weekend outside Congresswoman Melissa Bean's Schaumburg office. Bean has gotten some recent national attention courtesy Michelle Malkin. The protest was organized by FreedomWorks and LaRouchePAC. The crowd was large enough to distract motorists causing a nearby crash. The Daily Herald sent a reporter to cover the event, while observing: Melissa Bean "has not yet decided whether she supports Obama's plan." The Herald fails to mention that President Obama has never actually proposed a specific plan that could either be supported or rejected by legislators. Nor is there a Bill as of yet in Congress. Tis the silly season.

For the true scoop, your LakeCountyEye's special operative worked the crowd of tea baggers and reports a good time was had by all. Ten things overheard:

1) One lump or two?

2) I don't want the government anywhere near my Medicare.

3) Me neither, Mr. Crane.

4) Is this where the line starts to the meth panel?

5) Hello, my name is Pat Brady. Have you ever considered a run for Congress? Excellent health benefits.

6) I am Rowan Atkinson's #1 fan!

7) Have you signed this Melissa Bean nominating petition yet?

8) McSweeney and Greenberg need rides. Anyone?

9) My insurance company won't cover cognitive dissonance.

10) You can give me affordable government health insurance when you pry it from my cold dead fingers.

Pardon Me!

The new year 2009 is fast approaching. That means two things to watch out for:

1. Federal indictments.
   
2. Lame end-of-year-roundup blog posts.

Your LakeCountyEye is no exception to this tradition and takes its lede from a Dec 20 news item. Our Governor, bleepin' Rod Blagojevich, issued 22 pardons on that day.

"While facing his own legal cloud, Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich decided to pardon 22 other people. The Democratic governor rarely acted on pardon applications during his six years in office. The backlog of requests at one point topped 1,600. But Blagojevich has acted more often in recent months. His office says he issued 22 pardons Friday, the same day Blagojevich vowed to fight the federal corruption charges he faces."


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2008/12/19/blagojevich-pardons-people/

We won't speculate on the motives behind our Gov's sudden gesture of beneficence. But we will say if the Governor is in a pardoning mood, then keep them coming! Here's a list of our recommendations for Lake County:

1. Terry Link, State Senator & Lake County Democratic Party Chair
   A pardon for each deceased person on Link's 2008 nomination petition.
   


2. Pete Couvall, former Democratic Party Vice-Chair
   The same pardon granted to Link plus an up-to-date 2009 phone book.
   


3. Bill Gentes, former State Senate candidate
   A pardon for "misrepresenting" an easily checked fact. Which the Daily Herald proceeded to do.
   


4. Dan Seals, Congressional Candidate
   A pardon for flooding the street with below-cost gasoline.
   


5. Robert Sabonjian, Lake County Board Commissioner
   A pardon for making crank calls.
   


6. Tom Adams, former Green Oaks Mayor
   A pardon? LOL
   


7. Scott Gifford, Deer Park President
   A pardon for hiring R&W Clark to renovate the Vehe Barn, and failing to Google their bonding company. (Just Google Individual Surety Ltd. to find out what we mean.) Good luck, Scott, on recovering any of that $972,924!
   


8. Sally Coffelt, Lake County Recorder of Deeds
   A pardon for each relative drawing a County paycheck.
   


9. Melissa Bean, Congresswoman
   A pardon for living in Mark Kirk's district.
   


10. Ed Sullivan Jr, State Representative
    A pardon for all incidents where too much alcohol was consumed by at least one participant. Bonus: pardon jurisdiction to include Sangamon County.
    


11. Willard Helander, Lake County Clerk
    A pardon for each moving violation.
    


12. William Cellini, Springfield Power Broker
    A pardon for whatever it was he did. Now about that casino in Waukegan ...
    


13. George Bridges, Lake County Judge
    (Despite losing his judicial election, Judge Bridges immediately got reappointed to the bench.) A pardon for ignoring the wishes of the people.
    


14. Mark Curran, Lake County Sheriff
    The Sheriff is pardoned ... that is until he switches to the Bull Moose Party.
    


15. Bob Wargaski, Island Lake Agribusinessman
    A pardon for living high off the hog.
    


16. Lucy Prouty, Ela Township Supervisor
    A pardon for the Rte 22 chainsaw massacre. Who wanted those 112 old trees anyways?