Sunday, July 17, 2011

Walsh v Dold?

The Daily Herald reported that Carol Sente announced she will run for re-election to her Illinois House seat. Sente will not run for Congress in the 10th District:
Sente to run for re-election
The news should come as no surprise to readers of this blog:
Who's On, Tenth?
According to the seldom-visited-so-be-sure-to-click-the-link-below TeamAmerica10th blog ...
I guess cooler advisors and friends must have convinced Sente that the new 10th District wasn't quite drawn as a walk-away for a Dem as some might like to think, or was intended, plus anyone running against Bob Dold is already about a million dollars behind, not to mention facing a three or four-way primary before even getting to the general. So, Dems, it's back to the drawing board, unless socialist/facist/anarchist Ilya Sheyman is your cup of tea.
Dold too Bold for Carol Sente, So It's Back To the Drawing Board for Dems; Quick, Get Susan Garrett on Speed Dial, Stat!
It's been TeamAmerica10th's contention all along that the 10th is shaping up to be a safe Republican Congressional District. This is a fact not lost upon Republican as well as Democratic power brokers and, your LakeCountyEye has learned, not lost upon Joe Walsh's re-election campaign.

Joe Walsh -- remember him? -- is the Republican Congressman from the 8th, who's been redistricted into Democratic strongholds west of O'Hare. As of this posting, Walsh has not declared his re-election intentions. He has few good options and your LakeCountyEye assumes Walsh has not yet made up his mind. The 8th District will become too blue for him to win. While nearby 6th and 14th Districts will be an easy win for a Republican, both are held by Republican Congressman -- Peter Roskam and Randy Hultgren -- and Walsh would almost certainly find himself in tough Primaries, there. Walsh has nonetheless commissioned telephone polls to gauge his prospects in the 8th, 14th and 6th Districts.

One District seldom mentioned in this calculus is the 10th, and with good reason. Conventional wisdom holds that the redistricted 10th will be too liberal for the extreme Libertarian Walsh to beat the incumbent Republican Robert Dold in a Primary. On top of that, Walsh would have no chance in the November election against any Democrat.

Of course if the conventional wisdom was always on-the-money, this post would have been about 4-term Congresswoman Melissa Bean. Given that the 10th may not be an easy win for a Democrat -- and in fact may very well turn out to be a safe Republican district -- has Walsh reconsidering his options there. Walsh lived in the 10th as recently as 2008, and is now only a mile or two outside the new district boundary. The 10th should be shaping up to be a much more tempting pick-up opportunity for him than it would've seemed even ten days ago. Operatives are advised to be on the lookout for a telephone poll asking if they would vote for Walsh or Dold in a primary election.


Anonymous said...

Walsh would lose by a landslide in a primary against Dold.
For many, when people think of the 10th, they still can't envision a district west of Greenbay Rd.
No doubt many will be watching what happens in the new 10th.

Anonymous said...

I am a declared cnadidate for the
Republican nomination in the newly
mapped 8th Congressional District.

Having met with Dold and Joe Walsh
and others, I have the green light
to run and win the nomination. I lived in Villa Park for 8 years.
As a CPA and Risk Manager, I have the skill set to get the job done in Congress. While I am not a
veteran, surely fiscal repsonsibility is now job one for the Congress. As an auditor, I am trained to stop reckless and needless spending by businesses and
governemtal agencies.

Hope to meet and interview with you soon.

Best regards,

Rich Evans CPA
Candidate for Congress 8th District

Barney Baxter said...

hi Anon,

You may be right. Still, it's not going to be Mark Kirk's 10th District any more.


Barney Baxter said...

hi Rich,

Please send inquiries & announcements to: