Sunday, December 4, 2011

Teh Crazy Eighth

Christmas is only three weeks away and naturally foremost in everyone's thoughts is whether or not Joe Walsh will be running in the Eighth District. According to the Northwest Herald ...
U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh said he would decide by Monday whether he would run in the 8th Congressional District or in the 14th, where he would continue to face off against incumbent U.S. Rep. Randy Hultgren, R-Winfield. "You'll know soon enough what I'm going to do," said Walsh, R-McHenry.
to decide district by Monday
In a Saturday townhall, Walsh says that he will know by Monday. This telegraphs the message that Walsh was meeting with his pollsters or donors or somebody on Sunday night. Video of the townhall is on YouTube:

However your LakeCountyEye is betting Walsh has already made up his mind -- he will jump ship and run in the Eighth. If he had decided to tough it out in Fourteen, it would have been easy for him to say so at the Saturday townhall, and quash the rumors. It wouldn't be nearly as easy to admit he changed his mind and will be running in Eight instead. And certainly not to a townhall audience. Your LakeCountyEye expects a long & weepy Joe Walsh press conference with his announcement, sometimes this week.

This is smart politics on Walsh's part. If the polls showing that Hultgren will beat Walsh in a primary are accurate, then Walsh's political career would effectively be over on March 21. However it's a virtual certainty he wins a primary in the Eighth. This would extend his political career at least to November 6, where he would likely be on the ballot against Tammy Duckworth. The election in the Illinois Eighth Congressional District would be catapulted into a national marquee race -- the Teaparty favorite vs the Iraq War vet. If so, look for Walsh (and Duckworth) on all the Sunday morning news shows through the November election. Your LakeCountyEye expects this fits well into Walsh's plans.


Bill Baar said...

I wouldn't under estimate Krishnamoorthi in that primary against Duckworth. The Indian Community wants to see one of their own elected and they'll contribute to see it happen. He'll bring in some big money, and he's getting endorsements from the city.

Barney Baxter said...

hi Bill,

Krishnamoorthi has an outside chance, although Duckworth has the name recognition. With a low Dem turnout and if Krishnamoorthi runs a great ground game he could pull it off.